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Preflop action has a raise and three callers so 4 to the flop. With the raise and one call already it was a bit surprising to see the 9Tc call and Tony G to come along with a weak A3o. The flop hit Hansen, Tony & Seidel completely missing the 9Tc. Seidel checks his 88 flopped set. With a board like this slow play is safe. Hansen bets out 6k with his AQ top pair 2nd kicker. Hemsley makes a bad call with his 9Tc because look at the board, look at the preflop action, look who his opponents are and look at his hand. He has nothing and must catch runner runner to get any sort of a hand. He may be calling thinking Gus is a known wild man capable of betting out any two.
Tony G dumps his Ace rag quick which is a great laydown to fold any ace with Ace rag board. But he knows his kicker is terrible and even if he pairs it or gets another Ace on the board he is likely to be behind. He makes the best choice and lays down choosing to get in there in a better spot later. Back to Seidel who now raises Hansen’s flop bet. Finally Kemsley folds his junk connectors but not after burning unnecessary chips. Gus is in trouble but doesn’t know it yet. His only hope is to get lucky and catch running cards to win.
Flop comes and smacks Gus with a Q setting him up for a monster pot crash and burn. Gus now has top 2 pair and this time Seidel bets out about half the pot. Gus feels he’s sitting pretty as most anyone would. There is no way to get away from top two pair here like this. The only thing that beats him is a set. AA or QQ is not likely the way it played out. 44 or 88 is possible but he must wonder would Seidel checkraise the flop with a set and risk the opponent folding out? AK, AT, AJ, maybe a mid pp up to JJ is most likely what Gus is putting Seidel on. There is no straight or flush draw in that case and Gus thinks he would be tops. Gus is also getting some good odds to call here so of course he makes the call.
Flop comes a miracle Q and Gus hits his 4 outer. Now Seidel is sitting here with a boat and has to feel he has the nutz. Almost instantly he pushes all in without thought. I think this is a flaw and one I make often. He really needed to think about this and think on what his opponent may hold. All too often it’s easy to be in the bottom of a boat. While a Q4 is out of the question, a Q8 suited and a QA is definitely a possible holding for Gus here. He came all the way and was the initial aggressor preflop and on the flop.
Eric did not give Gus any credit for a hand and almost no analysis before putting his life on the line. It is highly doubtful either player would fold to an all in here under any circumstances. But it is possible to control the pot size and avoid losing the game even if you lose the hand by limiting the chips put at risk. If he pot bet or put out a feeler bet, it is possible Gus will just call and then the best hand will win. If Gus comes back all in, Eric must make the call with a boat. But if Gus just calls Eric wins a big pot if he is indeed ahead and only loses the pot and not the game if he is wrong and his boat is too small.
Gus on the other hand can only lose if there is AA in Eric’s hand and knowing that it might be possible for him to slow play like this and then put out a bet to try and entice an all in, Gus might have just called. Probably not though as it’s the 2nd best possible hand and only AA can beat him.
This hand was played really well by both and shows that outdrawing and miracle runner runner hands happen live to the pros in large world class live events, not just to us online. It shows that if you analyze a hand you can make a good laydown of aces if called for and save losing a lot more chips chasing what is most likely 2nd best even if you do hit.
Furthermore, there is the classic example of a hopeful gambler burning chips with some “pretty cards” that he didn’t have to. With the raise preflop and others to act after, that was a good place to fold. If you want to try for a lucky flop against a wild player like Gus with possible VP$IP of 45+ that is possible but once the flop hits and again you face a big bet, it doesn’t matter if you think your opponent is cBetting. You have nothing, and unless you want to try and take it with a bluff now, the best thing to do on a missed flop with junk however is fold. In summary, this hand had four players to the flop and only one made a mistake.
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